Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 8 are up 13,000 to 242,000 after an unrevised 229,000 in the prior week. The June 8 level is well above the consensus of 222,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The increase probably reflects an influx of claims from workers at school districts that was larger than anticipated by the seasonal adjustment factors. Unadjusted claims are up 38,530 to 234,707 in the June 8 week. The seasonally adjusted four-week moving average is 227,000 in the June 8 week, up 4,750 from 222,250 in the prior week. A single sizeable increase is within the normal week-to-week behavior of the report and not immediately concerning unless followed by large gains in subsequent weeks.

The level of insured unemployment claims is up 30,000 to 1.820 million in the June 1 week from 1.790 million in the prior week. Again, a one week increase should not raise alarm about the health of the labor market and the June 1 reading remains well in line with levels seen over the past year. The insured rate of unemployment remains at 1.2 percent in the June 1 week where it has been since March 2023. At least among those eligible for unemployment benefits, unemployment remains low and time on the unemployment rolls is generally not outlasting available benefits.

Jobless claims for the June 13 week are expected to come in at 222,000 versus 229,000 in the prior week.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.