Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Highlights
The fall in quarter-over-quarter headline growth was largely driven by investment and net trade. The contribution from net trade shifted from a positive contribution of 0.4 percentage points in the three months to December to a negative contribution of 0.9 percentage points in the three months to March, while private investment fell 0.8 percent on the quarter after increasing 0.7 percent previously .
Consumer spending rose 0.4 percent on the quarter in the three months to March after an increase of 0.2 percent, partly reflecting the impact of a series of Taylor Swift concerts that took place during the quarter.The Australian Grand Prix was also held in the first quarter of the year for the first time since 2019, providing an additional boost to consumer spending. The contribution of public demand to headline GDP growth also rose slightly.
Today's data cover the period in which officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy rates on hold after increasing them once in the previous quarter. At their latest meeting, held last month, officials left rates on hold again but again advised that they could not rule out further rate increases. Today's data, however, suggest that previous policy tightening is continuing to weigh on demand and activity.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.