Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Bank Rate - Change | 0bp | 0bp | 0bp |
Bank Rate - Level | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
Highlights
Seven members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, voted for no change. Two members, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden, voted to lower the rate by 25 basis points to 5.00 percent, as they did at the previous meeting.
Data published earlier this week showed headline CPI inflation fell from 2.3 percent in April to 2.0 percent in May, hitting the BoE's target level. In the statement accompanying today's decision, however, officials noted that they expect inflation to rise again later in the year and that key indicators of inflation persistence remain elevated.
Officials also noted that the current restrictive stance of monetary policy is weighing on activity and is loosening conditions in the labour market. Nevertheless, they stressed that their remit is always to aim to meet the inflation target while recognising that shocks and disturbances will cause inflation to depart from the two percent level.
Reflecting these considerations, the majority of MPC members concluded that rates should remain on hold today, arguing that policy should remain restrictive for as long as it takes to ensure inflation returns to the target level"sustainably in the medium term". The accompanying minutes note, however, that officials believe that the policy stance could remain restrictive even if the policy rate were to be reduced in upcoming meetings. Officials also stressed that updated forecasts in August would provide them with an opportunity to reconsider for how long policy rates should remain at their current level.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability - low inflation - and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. A remit announced by the Chancellor in March 2013 hinted that the real economy may have a larger say in policy decisions going forward. Price stability is defined by the Government's medium-term inflation target of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index. The foundation of the Bank's policy is the recognition of role of price stability in achieving economic stability more generally, and in providing the right conditions for sustainable growth in output and employment. The Government's inflation target is announced each year by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the annual Budget statement.
As in the United States, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change at these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on British markets - and to some extent those in Europe - can be dramatic and far-reaching. The interest rate set by the Bank of England, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the rate translates directly through to all other interest rates from gilts (fixed interest government securities named after the paper on which they were once printed) to mortgage loans.
The Bank of England sets an interest rate (Bank Rate) at which it lends to financial institutions. This interest rate then affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the price of financial assets, such as bonds and shares, and the exchange rate, which affect consumer and business demand in a variety of ways. Lowering or raising interest rates affects spending in the economy.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.