Retail sales edged up 0.2 percent on the month in April, unwinding most of their slightly smaller revised 0.3 percent March decline. This was their first increase since January and, with base effects strongly positive, large enough to lift annual workday adjusted growth from minus 0.2 percent to 2.7 percent.

The monthly advance was wholly attributable to discretionary spending which, after a 2.0 percent slump at quarter-end, climbed 1.8 percent. By contrast, food purchases were weak, declining 1.0 percent after a 0.6 percent gain previously. This was their first drop in 2024.

The limited April recovery leaves volumes just 0.1 percent above their average level in the first quarter. However, with consumer confidence on a gradually rising trend and the labour market easing, but still tight, overall conditions should be modestly positive for household spending over the rest of the quarter. Today's update puts the Swiss RPI at 11 and the RPI-P at 2. In other words, economic activity in general is performing broadly in line with expectations leaving a still uncertain call for the SNB's interest rate decision next month.

Annual sales growth is seen rising from minus 0.1 percent in March to 0.2 percent.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.