Highlights
After a quiet week on the US data front and no change in policy both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England (two BOE board members voted for a rate cut), expectations for the next move are a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (June 5), the European Central Bank (June 6) and the BOE (June 20). They would follow the lead of Sweden's Riksbank that conducted its first rate reduction in eight years last week by lowering its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. In March, the Swiss National Bank made a surprise move to cut its key interest rate, becoming the first major central bank to ease rates during the current cycle.
By contrast, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates amid resilient US economic growth and sticky inflation. Thus, the focus for this week is on the US CPI data for April, which is expected to show only a slight easing in the annual inflation rate to 3.4 percent from March's 3.5 percent amid rising prices for fuels and some commodities. This will follow the April reports from the Institute for Supply Management earlier this month that showed the ISM manufacturing prices paid index surged to the highest since June 2022 while the services prices index jumped to a four-month high.
On Monday, India's annual consumer inflation rate is forecast at 4.80 percent for April, easing only slightly from 4.85 percent in March and moderating from 5.09 percent in February.
In April, the Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50 percent, as widely expected. RBI officials expect inflation to ease to around 4.5 percent in coming quarters, but stressed that"the path of disinflation needs to be sustained" until inflation falls to the bank's target of 4.0 percent.
There is no major data release in North America.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will participate in a discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT).
Producer inflation in Japan is expected to accelerate slightly to 0.9 percent in April after rising to 0.8 percent in arch from 0.7 percent in February as the weak yen is pushing up import costs and the base-year effect of utility subsidies had already waned. The downward pressure still comes from utilities, which fell 19.1 percent in March, and the prices for lumber and steel also remain below year-earlier levels. On the month, the corporate goods price index (CGPI) is forecast to rise 0.4 percent following a 0.4 percent gain, which was led by non-ferrous metals, farm produce and utilities.
By contrast, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates amid resilient US economic growth and sticky inflation. Thus, the focus for this week is on the US CPI data for April, which is expected to show only a slight easing in the annual inflation rate to 3.4 percent from March's 3.5 percent amid rising prices for fuels and some commodities. This will follow the April reports from the Institute for Supply Management earlier this month that showed the ISM manufacturing prices paid index surged to the highest since June 2022 while the services prices index jumped to a four-month high.
On Monday, India's annual consumer inflation rate is forecast at 4.80 percent for April, easing only slightly from 4.85 percent in March and moderating from 5.09 percent in February.
In April, the Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50 percent, as widely expected. RBI officials expect inflation to ease to around 4.5 percent in coming quarters, but stressed that"the path of disinflation needs to be sustained" until inflation falls to the bank's target of 4.0 percent.
There is no major data release in North America.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will participate in a discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT).
Producer inflation in Japan is expected to accelerate slightly to 0.9 percent in April after rising to 0.8 percent in arch from 0.7 percent in February as the weak yen is pushing up import costs and the base-year effect of utility subsidies had already waned. The downward pressure still comes from utilities, which fell 19.1 percent in March, and the prices for lumber and steel also remain below year-earlier levels. On the month, the corporate goods price index (CGPI) is forecast to rise 0.4 percent following a 0.4 percent gain, which was led by non-ferrous metals, farm produce and utilities.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
