Highlights
China's trade surplus for April is expected to jump to $81.3 billion from a lower-than-expected $58.55 billion in March in a report that saw a steep 7.5 percent year-over-year decline in exports. Exports are forecast to rise 2.0 percent while imports are also seen rebounding 5.5 percent after a 1.9 percent dip.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25 percent. No policy member wanted to hike rates in March and only one wanted to cut. A similar outcome is expected at the May meeting.
At 7:30 a.m. EDT (1130 GMT/1330 CET), the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April 11 meeting at which the Governing Council decided to leave the refi rate at 4.50 percent and the deposit rate at 4.00 percent. The council said if it became more confident that inflation was converging to the 2 percent target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. The ECB is expected to lower key rates by 25 basis points in June.
US new jobless claims for the May 4 week are expected to come in at 212,000 versus 208,000 in the prior week.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to post its 13th straight drop on the year in March, down 2.3 percent, after edging down 0.5 percent in February (down 2.7 percent without the leap-year effect) and slumping 6.3 percent in January, which was caused by special factors (people spent less on tours as travel subsidies had wound down toward the end of 2023.) Consumers remain cautious amid elevated costs for necessities and concerns that the yen's fall to 34-year lows will cause a resumed surge in import costs. On the month, expenditures are forecast to be unchanged after rising an above-forecast 1.4 percent in February. Lower temperatures in the first half of March dampened demand for spring clothing but sales of formal wear for graduation and entrance ceremonies were solid.
The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25 percent. No policy member wanted to hike rates in March and only one wanted to cut. A similar outcome is expected at the May meeting.
At 7:30 a.m. EDT (1130 GMT/1330 CET), the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April 11 meeting at which the Governing Council decided to leave the refi rate at 4.50 percent and the deposit rate at 4.00 percent. The council said if it became more confident that inflation was converging to the 2 percent target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction. The ECB is expected to lower key rates by 25 basis points in June.
US new jobless claims for the May 4 week are expected to come in at 212,000 versus 208,000 in the prior week.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to post its 13th straight drop on the year in March, down 2.3 percent, after edging down 0.5 percent in February (down 2.7 percent without the leap-year effect) and slumping 6.3 percent in January, which was caused by special factors (people spent less on tours as travel subsidies had wound down toward the end of 2023.) Consumers remain cautious amid elevated costs for necessities and concerns that the yen's fall to 34-year lows will cause a resumed surge in import costs. On the month, expenditures are forecast to be unchanged after rising an above-forecast 1.4 percent in February. Lower temperatures in the first half of March dampened demand for spring clothing but sales of formal wear for graduation and entrance ceremonies were solid.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
