Retail sales were surprisingly soft again at quarter-end. Following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February, March's 0.4 percent monthly drop and was the first decline since last December and left volumes at their lowest level so far in 2024. Annual workday adjusted growth dipped from 0.2 percent to minus 0.1 percent.

In fact, the underlying picture was rather weaker as overall purchases were boosted by a 0.4 percent increase in food, drink and tobacco and a 0.8 percent bounce in auto fuel. Excluding auto fuel, non-food demand contracted a hefty 2.1 percent, its steepest decrease since April 2023 and leaving discretionary spending at its weakest mark since last October.

That said, despite March's setback, total volume sales last quarter were 0.8 percent higher than in the previous period so the retail sector provided another lift to GDP growth. Even so, with the Swiss RPI now at minus 13 and the RPI-P at minus 16, economic activity in general continues to modestly lag behind market expectations.

Yearly sales growth is seen moving up from minus 0.2 percent in February to 0.2 percent in March.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.