ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index49.950.548.3
Services Index50.551.348.3

Highlights

Business activity was stronger than originally thought at the start of the quarter. The 49.9 flash composite output index was revised up to 50.5 to signal the first positive growth in almost a year. The latest reading compared with 48.3 in the final March report.

The headline adjustment was largely due to services where the 50.5 flash sector PMI was boosted to 51.3, its best reading since May 2003. New orders increased on the back of stronger demand at home and abroad although it remained historically subdued. Still, the rise was sufficient to lift backlogs for the first time since last July. As a result, employment expanded further and the rate of jobs growth accelerated to a 9-month high. Looking ahead, business expectations for the coming year were down slightly versus March but still the second strongest since January 2023.

Input cost inflation continued to cool but remained high and was firm enough to see output prices hiked by the most in three months.

In sum, the final April results will boost hopes that second quarter growth will come above the modest 0.2 percent rate seen at the start of the year. The overall picture remains quite sluggish but the relative buoyancy of services could be a threat to prices and the ECB will be watching this area closely. Today's report leaves the French RPI at 18 and the RPI-P at 13, both readings showing economic activity in general running slightly ahead of market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving the key composite output index at 49.9, up from March's final 48.3.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 750 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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