ConsensusActualPrevious
Index44.945.346.2

Highlights

Manufacturing activity was a little less weak than originally thought in April. The 44.9 flash sector PMI was revised up to 45.3 but remains nearly a full point below its 42.6 final March reading and almost 5 points short of the 50-expansion threshold. The latest outturn was also 3-month low.

April's contraction reflected further falls in new orders, output and backlogs. Most worrying was the accelerated drop in demand which in large part was due to the domestic market, although exports also decreased again. However, it was not all bad news as job shedding was the least marked in 10 months and growth expectations for the year ahead were the highest in 12 months.

Inflationary pressures picked up with input costs rising by the most in 14 months. Even so, strongly competitive market conditions continue to limit producers' scope to protect margins and factory gate prices fell for an 11th successive month.

Despite the positive headline revision, French manufacturing remains firmly in the doldrums and the ongoing decline in new orders argues against any near-term recovery. However, today's update was still strong enough to lift both the RPI and RPI-P to 25, showing overall economic activity still running quite well ahead of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving a 44.9 headline index, down from March's final 46.2.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 400 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are released by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures..

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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