ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.2%0.1%0.3%
Year over Year1.1%1.1%0.7%0.8%

Highlights

The economy expanded at an unrevised 0.2 percent quarterly rate at the start of the year following a stronger revised 0.3 percent increase at the end of 2024. Annual growth was similarly unrevised at 1.1 percent, up from the previous period's 0.8 percent.

However, final domestic demand expanded just 0.1 percent, down from the previously reported 0.4 percent. Household spending is now also seen up only 0.1 percent while gross fixed capital formation was trimmed to show a 0.4 percent decline. Within the latter, business investment was down 0.5 percent and residential investment 1.4 percent. General government spending provided a modest boost, climbing 0.6 percent but business inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage points after a 0.7 percentage point hit in the fourth quarter.

Consequently, headline growth would have been weaker but for a larger revised contribution from foreign trade. With exports now 1.2 percent stronger and imports up only 0.4 percent, the net boost was 0.2 percentage points, up from the neutral impact reported previously.

In sum, the revised data show a rather less favourable GDP composition and so underscore the sluggishness of the French economy. Moreover, with the French RPI now at minus 41 and the RPI-P at minus 38, economic activity in general is falling well short of market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data leaving a 0.2 percent quarterly rise and a 1.1 percent yearly advance.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Following the release of the flash estimate about four weeks earlier, the second report incorporates additional data to provide a more accurate reading. This is also revised in the final report, published in the third month after the reference quarter.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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