Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
Highlights
However, final domestic demand expanded just 0.1 percent, down from the previously reported 0.4 percent. Household spending is now also seen up only 0.1 percent while gross fixed capital formation was trimmed to show a 0.4 percent decline. Within the latter, business investment was down 0.5 percent and residential investment 1.4 percent. General government spending provided a modest boost, climbing 0.6 percent but business inventories subtracted 0.2 percentage points after a 0.7 percentage point hit in the fourth quarter.
Consequently, headline growth would have been weaker but for a larger revised contribution from foreign trade. With exports now 1.2 percent stronger and imports up only 0.4 percent, the net boost was 0.2 percentage points, up from the neutral impact reported previously.
In sum, the revised data show a rather less favourable GDP composition and so underscore the sluggishness of the French economy. Moreover, with the French RPI now at minus 41 and the RPI-P at minus 38, economic activity in general is falling well short of market forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.