| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
Highlights
The labour market was little changed at the start of the year. At 7.3 percent, the mainland jobless rate matched its fourth quarter reading and so still equals its highest level since the third quarter of 2021. The latest print was a tick above the market consensus.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose just 6,000 after a 30,000 increase in the previous period leaving the jobless rate steady at 7.5 percent. This was 0.4 percentage points above the recent low seen at the start of 2023. At the same time, the overall employment rate climbed 0.3 percentage points to 68.8 percent, largely due to an increase in the number of self-employed. The permanent rate was only flat at 50.7 percent but this matched the record high seen since INSEE began reporting the data in 2003.
In sum, the first quarter report shows a sluggish labour market, consistent with an economy struggling to achieve any real growth. Even so, at 20 and 18 respectively, both the French RPI and RPI-P show economic activity in general continuing to run somewhat ahead of market expectations.
Including overseas territories, unemployment rose just 6,000 after a 30,000 increase in the previous period leaving the jobless rate steady at 7.5 percent. This was 0.4 percentage points above the recent low seen at the start of 2023. At the same time, the overall employment rate climbed 0.3 percentage points to 68.8 percent, largely due to an increase in the number of self-employed. The permanent rate was only flat at 50.7 percent but this matched the record high seen since INSEE began reporting the data in 2003.
In sum, the first quarter report shows a sluggish labour market, consistent with an economy struggling to achieve any real growth. Even so, at 20 and 18 respectively, both the French RPI and RPI-P show economic activity in general continuing to run somewhat ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The first quarter jobless rate for the mainland is seen at 7.2 percent, down from 7.3 percent at the end of last year.
Definition
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. It is based on the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of unemployment, which excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are looking for work and are available for work. The report contains data on both total joblessness and just mainland unemployment; the latter is regarded as the more significant.
Description
The data report the number of unemployed persons (quarterly average) for metropolitan France and for metropolitan France plus overseas departments. The metropolitan measure is regarded as the more useful guide.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
The data provide a comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs and the unemployment rate. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
Despite the delay in publication of these data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the jobs market. If labour markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will rise and bond and stock prices will fall.
