ActualPreviousConsensus
Month over Month0.97%-0.08%
Year over Year6.7%4.5%5.3%

Highlights

Chinese industrial production rose 6.7 percent on the year in April, picking up from 4.5 percent in March. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.97 percent in April after falling 0.08 percent in March.

Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 7.5 percent on the year in April after increasing 6.7 percent in March. Utilities output and mining output rose 5.8 percent and 2.0 percent on the year respectively after increasing 6.9 percent and 1.9 percent respectively in March.

Officials characterised monthly data published today as showing that"the national economy was generally stable and continued to rebound and progress well". Although they acknowledged growth in some indicators moderated, they attributed this to the impact of lunar new year holidays and base effects. Officials also warned, however, that"the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain" and that the domestic economy still faces"multiple difficulties and challenges". They noted that they will seek to"frontload and effectively implement" macroeconomic policies that have already been introduced, suggesting that they do not yet see a case for a major shift in policy settings.

Other monthly activity data published today were weaker than expected, but industrial production growth was above the consensus forecast for year-over-year growth of 5.3 percent. China's RPI fell from plus 29 to minus 21 and the RPI-P fell from plus 40 to minus 30, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in below consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Year-over-year growth in industrial production percent in March rose a lower-than-expected 4.5 percent. Expectations for April is a pop higher to 5.3 percent.

Definition

Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.

Description

Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.

The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
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