ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.0%0.1%
Year over Year2.0%2.4%

Highlights

Italian retail sales were flat on the month in March after increasing 0.1 percent in February, with year-over-year growth slowing from 2.4 percent to 2.0 percent. Food sales rose 0.2 percent on the month, offset by a 0.3 percent decline in non-food sales. Sales volumes fell 0.1 percent on the month in March after increasing 0.1 percent in February.

Today's data were weaker than the consensus forecast for a month-over-month increase of 0.2 percent. The RPI rose from minus 17 to minus 14, while the RPI-P fell from zero to minus 5, indicating modest under-performance in recent Italian data.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales are seen expanding 0.2 percent on the month following a disappointingly small 0.1 percent gain in February.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.

Description

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
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