ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.3%0.3%0.3%
Year over Year0.6%0.7%0.6%0.7%

Highlights

Quarterly growth was unrevised in the final data for the first quarter. A 0.3 percent rate matched the provisional estimate and was up from the previous period's 0.1 percent advance. Annual growth was revised just a tick higher to 0.7 percent and now shows no change from the fourth quarter outturn.

Household spending also advanced a quarterly 0.3 percent after a 1.4 percent drop previously and gross fixed capital formation increased 0.5 percent with rises in house construction (1.5 percent) and other buildings (2.2 percent) more than offsetting a sizeable decline in machinery and equipment (1.5 percent). Government consumption edged 0.1 percent higher.

Foreign trade had a positive impact as exports climbed 0.6 percent and imports fell 1.7 percent.

Today's update confirms a surprisingly strong performance by the Italian economy last quarter, and gains in the key elements of final domestic demand bode well for the current quarter. Even so, in line with the rest of the Eurozone, goods production is still struggling and growth remains largely dependent upon services. Today's update puts the Italian RPI at minus 1 and the RPI-P at 13. Overall economic activity is meeting market expectations but surprisingly weak prices are helping to mask modest outperformance by the real economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly rise and a 0.6 percent yearly advance.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. A flash estimate, providing just quarterly and annual growth rates together with some limited qualitative information on sector output, is usually available 6-7 weeks after the reference quarter.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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