Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
Highlights
Household spending also advanced a quarterly 0.3 percent after a 1.4 percent drop previously and gross fixed capital formation increased 0.5 percent with rises in house construction (1.5 percent) and other buildings (2.2 percent) more than offsetting a sizeable decline in machinery and equipment (1.5 percent). Government consumption edged 0.1 percent higher.
Foreign trade had a positive impact as exports climbed 0.6 percent and imports fell 1.7 percent.
Today's update confirms a surprisingly strong performance by the Italian economy last quarter, and gains in the key elements of final domestic demand bode well for the current quarter. Even so, in line with the rest of the Eurozone, goods production is still struggling and growth remains largely dependent upon services. Today's update puts the Italian RPI at minus 1 and the RPI-P at 13. Overall economic activity is meeting market expectations but surprisingly weak prices are helping to mask modest outperformance by the real economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.