Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
HICP - M/M | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
HICP - Y/Y | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
Highlights
The flash HICP was similarly lowered by 0.1 percentage point to show a 0.5 percent increase on the month and a 0.9 percent yearly rate, now fully 1.1 percentage below the ECB's target.
April's fall in annual CPI inflation was largely attributable to non-regulated energy (minus 13.9 percent after minus 10.3 percent), transport (2.7 percent after 4.5 percent) and miscellaneous services (1.8 percent after 2.3 percent). Regulated energy (minus 1.3 percent after minus 13.8 percent) and recreation (3.8 percent after 3.2 percent) provided the main boost. Consequently, core inflation was also revised down a tick to 2.1 percent.
The final April report leaves Italy close to the bottom of the Eurozone inflation ladder and waving a green flag for a June interest rate cut from the ECB. The data also leave both the Italian RPI (minus 21) and RPI-P (minus 6) in negative surprise territory.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.