Household sentiment was unchanged in April. At minus 38, the unadjusted headline index matched both its March reading and its outturn a year ago and was a couple of points stronger than the market consensus. The measure duly remained above its minus 42 long-run average.

Most of the components were broadly stable on the month although the economic outlook (minus 21 after minus 23) improved slightly. Job security (minus 21 after minus 22) was also marginally firmer but against that, buying intentions (minus 60 after minus 58) were modestly weaker. In terms of prices, the one year ahead inflation gauge (96 after 95) edged a little higher but was still well short of the levels seen over much of 2023.

Overall, the results just about leave a mildly improving trend in consumer confidence which should offer some support to spending over coming months. However, they also leave both the Swiss RPI (minus 4) and RPI-P (minus 20) below zero, showing that economic activity in general continues to underperform market forecasts.

Confidence is expected to have deteriorated slightly from minus 38 in March to minus 40 in April.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) compiles a quarterly survey of consumer attitudes on present and expected economic and financial conditions. The survey covers around 1,200 Swiss households and results are synthesised into a single summary consumer climate index that attempts to measure consumer sentiment.

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often a major influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Consumer spending accounts for a major portion of the Swiss economy, so investors want to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. An increasing important element of the survey is the question concerning current buying intentions.