| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -23.0 | -20.9 | -24.2 | -24.0 |
Highlights
GfK's latest survey again found confidence rising surprisingly sharply. Following a marginally larger revised gain to minus 24.0 in May, the climate indicator is expected to climb more than 3 points to minus 20.9 in June. This was some 2.1 points above the market consensus and would be a fifth consecutive increase. Even so, current values remain historically weak.
The improvement in May in part reflected more robust income expectations which rose a further 1.8 points to 12.5, their strongest reading since January 2022. Economic expectations were also up some 9.1 points at 9.8, now only 2.5 points below their mark a year ago, However, while the willingness to save declined nearly 10 points to 5.0, buying intentions were only up 0.3 points at minus 12.3 and remain in a relatively tight and subdued band.
As such, although the trend in overall confidence is clearly up, consumers are still cautious and seem unlikely to embark on any near-term spending spree. More generally, today's report lifts the German RPI to 2 and the RPI-P to 8, both measures showing recent overall economic activity essentially performing as expected.
The improvement in May in part reflected more robust income expectations which rose a further 1.8 points to 12.5, their strongest reading since January 2022. Economic expectations were also up some 9.1 points at 9.8, now only 2.5 points below their mark a year ago, However, while the willingness to save declined nearly 10 points to 5.0, buying intentions were only up 0.3 points at minus 12.3 and remain in a relatively tight and subdued band.
As such, although the trend in overall confidence is clearly up, consumers are still cautious and seem unlikely to embark on any near-term spending spree. More generally, today's report lifts the German RPI to 2 and the RPI-P to 8, both measures showing recent overall economic activity essentially performing as expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
May's consumer climate index rose a surprisingly strong 3.1 points to, however, a still historically weak minus 24.2. June's expectations are further improvement to minus 23.0.
Definition
GfK's consumer climate survey asks around 2,000 German consumers every month about their assessment of economic conditions. The questions focus on economic and income expectations and consumers' willingness to buy. Having calculated the differences between the positive and negative responses for each question the results are synthesized into a single number that reflects overall consumer expectations for the coming month.
Description
Any insight into household expenditure is vital to understanding how the economy as a whole is shaping up. The monthly correlation between the GfK consumer gauge and actual spending is not especially high but trends in the index can offer useful information about potential underlying developments in consumer behavior. As a forward looking indicator, the GfK index is one input used by analysts in the construction of their forecasts of future German retail sales.
