ActualPreviousRevised
Index-0.230.15-0.04
3-Month Moving Average0.01-0.06-0.17

Highlights

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is down to minus 0.23 in April after a downward revision to minus 0.04 in March. The Chicago Fed said,"Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and all four categories made negative contributions in April."

The reading for production-related indicators is weaker at minus 0.11 in April from a near-neutral minus 0.01 in March. Indicators for sales, orders, and inventories firm slightly to minus 0.03 in April from minus 0.06 in March. The employment-related indicators are moving right around neutral at down 0.02 in March after a positive 0.02 in March. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are softer at minus 0.07 in April from a barely positive 0.01 in March.

The three-month moving average CFNAI is just above neutral at 0.01 in April while March had a small upward revision to minus 0.17 in March. CFNAI three-month moving average readings above minus 0.70 point to economic expansion.

Definition

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Description

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
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