ActualPreviousConsensus
Composite Index52.852.7
Services Index52.552.752.5

Highlights

The S&P Global PMI composite index for China increased to 52.8 in April from 52.7 in March, indicating that China's economy is growing at a solid, steady pace. The business activity index for China's services sector, also published today, eased from 52.7 to 52.5, while the previously-published headline index for the manufacturing PMI survey rose from 51.1 in March to 51.4 in April. Official PMI survey data published last week showed steady but subdued expansion in the manufacturing sector and somewhat weaker growth in the non-manufacturing sector in April.

Respondents to today's service sector survey reported stronger growth in output, new orders, and new export orders in April, with the latter growing at the fastest pace in ten months. Payrolls were reported to have fallen for the third consecutive month, largely driven by resignations and redundancies, while the survey's measure of confidence increased for the second month in a row. Respondents also reported weaker growth in input costs but a bigger increase in selling prices.

Today's data matched the consensus forecast of 52.5 for the service sector survey's headline index. The China RPI and the RPI-P both rose from plus 2 to plus 16, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in moderately above consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

S&P's services PMI in April is expected to slow slightly to 52.5 from March's 52.7.

Definition

The S&P China Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy.

The S&P China Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Chinese manufacturing and service sectors.

Description

The PMIs have developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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