ConsensusActualPrevious
Index42.242.541.9

Highlights

The 42.2 flash sector PMI was revised up to 42.5 in the final data and so now stands 0.6 points above its final print in March. Even so, the latest reading was just a 2-month high and far enough below the 50-expansion threshold to underscore a deep and ongoing recession.

Output (sub-index 45.4) declined at a reduced rate versus March but, ominously, new orders fell more sharply and, indeed, by the most since last November. Production was again supported by a rundown in backlogs although the rate of depletion here was at least the weakest for 12 months. Headcount was trimmed further and, while less than in the previous month, the drop was sizeable. Even so, business expectations about the year ahead recorded a second-straight gain and reached their most optimistic level since April 2023.

Weak demand continued to put downside pressure on input costs but higher prices for some materials meant that the overall rate of decline was the shallowest in 14 months. Factory gate prices were again very weak and posted their steepest drop since September 2009.

There is little good news for German manufacturing in today's report which confirms a dismal current picture and offers no real hope of any significant near-term improvement. That said, while the final April data trim the German RPI to 24 and the RPI-P to 36, both measures still show economic activity in general running someway ahead of market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving a 42.2 headline index, up from March's final 41.9.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 500 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are released by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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