Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
Year over Year | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
Highlights
The first look at the GDP expenditure components revealed a 0.4 percent quarterly drop in both household and government consumption but weakness here contrasted with a 1.2 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation led by a 2.7 percent jump in construction investment. Business inventories were essentially flat as was overall domestic demand, the latter following a 0.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter.
Consequently, headline growth came courtesy of foreign trade where export volumes increased 1.1 percent or nearly double the 0.6 percent gain in imports. The net impact was a 0.3 percentage point boost that matched the fourth quarter impact.
The first quarter data flatter to deceive inasmuch as final domestic demand was again weak. Still, business surveys have pointed to a better second quarter with a gradual turnaround in manufacturing complementing a solid performance by services. That said, today's update puts the German RPI at 7 and the RPI-P at 15, both readings showing economic activity in general running slightly ahead of market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.