ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.2%-0.3%-0.5%
Year over Year-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%

Highlights

The economy expanded at an unrevised 0.2 percent quarterly rate at the start of the year, unwinding only a portion of the fourth quarter's 0.5 percent contraction. Annual workday adjusted growth was also unrevised at minus 0.2 percent while the unadjusted data still show a 0.9 percent decline.

The first look at the GDP expenditure components revealed a 0.4 percent quarterly drop in both household and government consumption but weakness here contrasted with a 1.2 percent increase in gross fixed capital formation led by a 2.7 percent jump in construction investment. Business inventories were essentially flat as was overall domestic demand, the latter following a 0.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter.

Consequently, headline growth came courtesy of foreign trade where export volumes increased 1.1 percent or nearly double the 0.6 percent gain in imports. The net impact was a 0.3 percentage point boost that matched the fourth quarter impact.

The first quarter data flatter to deceive inasmuch as final domestic demand was again weak. Still, business surveys have pointed to a better second quarter with a gradual turnaround in manufacturing complementing a solid performance by services. That said, today's update puts the German RPI at 7 and the RPI-P at 15, both readings showing economic activity in general running slightly ahead of market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data leaving 0.2 percent quarterly growth and an annual workday adjusted contraction of 0.2 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Following the release of the flash estimate about two weeks earlier, the second report incorporates additional data to provide a more accurate reading. It also contains details of the key GDP expenditure components and full national accounts.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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