ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index54.054.152.8
Services Index54.955.053.1

Highlights

The flash composite output index was revised marginally firmer in the final data for April. At 54.1, the headline measure now stands 1.3 points above its final March print and at its highest level since April 2023.

However, as shown in the preliminary report, it is services that continue to do all the work. The 54.9 flash sector PMI was similarly revised a tick stronger and, at 55.0, indicated the largest rise in activity in 11 months. New orders expanded at a healthy rate on the back of gains in both the domestic and overseas markets and employment also grew, albeit less robustly. A fall in backlogs was only minimal and business expectations about the year ahead remained upbeat. Around 54 percent of respondents anticipated a rise in output and only 10 percent predicted a decline.

Inflationary pressures were less well behaved. The input cost rate climbed to its highest reading in eight months and output prices rose sharply. That said, negative base effects saw the latter's inflation rate slip to its lowest point since April 2021

In sum, the final April results point to solid, if lopsided, growth and with price pressures still an issue, should help to ensure another the majority vote for no change in Bank Rate at next week's BoE MPC meeting. The UK RPI now stands at minus 7 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. Overall economic activity is essentially matching market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected leaving a solid 54.0 headline composite output index, up from March's final 52.8.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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