The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance was in another sizeable €17.3 billion surplus in March, up from February's smaller revised €16.7 billion. The improvement reflected a 0.1 percent monthly rise in exports combined with a 0.1 percent dip in imports. Unadjusted, the black ink stood at €24.1 billion, a marked increase on the €19.1 billion posted in March last year.

The minimal monthly rise leaves an essentially flat trend in exports which, at €237.7 billion, were only unchanged from their level at the start of the year. Indeed, the unadjusted data show a yearly decline of 9.2 percent. Imports are rather weaker having fallen in four of the last five months. Annual growth here now stands at minus 12.0 percent, although even that is well up on the 18.7 percent decline seen at the end of 2023. Both sides of the balance sheet remain impacted by the war in Ukraine. Hence, for the EU as a whole, exports to Russia were down 37.7 percent on the year while imports were off 22.3 percent.

The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. For the Eurozone, monthly data are available for trade in goods; statistics on services are released as part of the overall quarterly current account report. The headline trade data are not adjusted for seasonal factors and so should only be viewed in relation to the outturn a year ago. However, seasonally adjusted figures available elsewhere in the report do allow for monthly comparisons.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the local currency dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.