| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$7.4B | A$5.02B | A$7.28B | A$6.59B |
| Imports - M/M | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | 2.3% | 17.1% | 17.0% | |
| Exports - M/M | 0.1% | -2.2% | -3.2% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -12.1% | -2.4% | -3.8% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed from a revised A$6.59 billion in February to A$5.02 billion in March, below the consensus forecast of A$7.4 billion. Exports were flat after a previous decline while imports recorded steady and solid growth.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 0.1 percent on the month in March after falling 3.2 percent in February. Exports of non-rural goods recorded a second consecutive decline, but exports of rural goods rebounded sharply. Exports fell 12.1 percent on the year in March after a decline of 3.8 percent in February.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 4.2 percent on the month in March, little changed from growth of 4.4 percent in February. Imports of consumption and capital goods recorded stronger growth, offset by a smaller increase in imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods. Total imports rose 2.3 percent on the year in March after surging 17.0 percent in February.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 0.1 percent on the month in March after falling 3.2 percent in February. Exports of non-rural goods recorded a second consecutive decline, but exports of rural goods rebounded sharply. Exports fell 12.1 percent on the year in March after a decline of 3.8 percent in February.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 4.2 percent on the month in March, little changed from growth of 4.4 percent in February. Imports of consumption and capital goods recorded stronger growth, offset by a smaller increase in imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods. Total imports rose 2.3 percent on the year in March after surging 17.0 percent in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in March is a surplus of A$7.4 billion versus February's lower-than-expected A$7.3 billion surplus.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
