| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M | 243,000 | 190,000 to 303,000 | 175,000 | 303,000 | 315,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.8% | 3.8% to 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | |
| Private Payrolls - M/M | 190,000 | 152,000 to 232,000 | 167,000 | 232,000 | 243,000 |
| Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M | 7,000 | 0 to 12,000 | 8,000 | 0 | -4,000 |
| Participation Rate | 62.7% | 62.6% to 62.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings - M/M | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y | 4.0% | 4.0% to 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | |
| Average Workweek | 34.4hrs | 34.4hrs to 34.4hrs | 34.3hrs | 34.4hrs |
Highlights
Nonfarm payrolls increased 175,000 in April, less than even the lowest forecast of 190,000 in an Econoday survey, following a 315,000 gain in March that was revised up from 303,000. Private payrolls rose 167,000 and government employment was little changed with an increase of 8,000.
The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent, coming in at the high end of expectations. The labor participation rate was unchanged at 62.7 percent, as expected.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from 0.3 percent in March. Earnings were up 3.9 percent year-over-year, down from 4.0 percent the previous month and below the 4.0 percent consensus. The average workweek was 34.3 hours, slightly below expected and below 34.4 hours in March.
While today's report brings evidence of a slowdown in hiring and the pace of earnings growth, the Fed will likely want to have assurance it will be a sustained trend. In fact, Econoday's Relative Performance Index is consistent with limited easing risk. Wednesday's FOMC statement continued to highlight the central bank's cautious stance on inflationary pressure, noting it remains"highly attentive to inflation risks". It also stressed the lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The increase in private-sector employment was led by a 153,000 gain in services after 204,000 in March, including an 87,000 advance in health care and social assistance.
Within goods-producing industries, construction added 9,000 jobs and manufacturing 8,000, concentrated in nondurable industries, more than offsetting a 3,000 decline in mining and logging.
The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent, coming in at the high end of expectations. The labor participation rate was unchanged at 62.7 percent, as expected.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from 0.3 percent in March. Earnings were up 3.9 percent year-over-year, down from 4.0 percent the previous month and below the 4.0 percent consensus. The average workweek was 34.3 hours, slightly below expected and below 34.4 hours in March.
While today's report brings evidence of a slowdown in hiring and the pace of earnings growth, the Fed will likely want to have assurance it will be a sustained trend. In fact, Econoday's Relative Performance Index is consistent with limited easing risk. Wednesday's FOMC statement continued to highlight the central bank's cautious stance on inflationary pressure, noting it remains"highly attentive to inflation risks". It also stressed the lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The increase in private-sector employment was led by a 153,000 gain in services after 204,000 in March, including an 87,000 advance in health care and social assistance.
Within goods-producing industries, construction added 9,000 jobs and manufacturing 8,000, concentrated in nondurable industries, more than offsetting a 3,000 decline in mining and logging.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A strong 243,000 rise is the call for nonfarm payroll growth in April versus an even stronger 303,000 in March which for a fifth month in a row exceeded Econoday's consensus and for the fourth month in a row exceeded Econoday's consensus range. Average hourly earnings in April are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.0 percent; these would compare with March's rates of 0.3 and 4.1 percent. April's unemployment rate is expected to hold unchanged at March's 3.8 percent.
Definition
The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.
The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.
Description
If ever there was an economic report that can move the markets, this is it! The anticipation on Wall Street each month is palpable, the reactions can be dramatic, and the information for investors is invaluable. By digging just a little deeper than the headline unemployment rate, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio and even take advantage of unique investment opportunities that often arise in the days surrounding this report.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy. Nonfarm payrolls are categorized by sectors. This sector data can go a long way in helping investors determine in which economic sectors they intend to invest.
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of opponents of easy monetary policy. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
Importance
The employment situation is the primary monthly indicator of aggregate economic activity because it encompasses all major sectors of the economy. It is comprehensive and available early in the month. Many other economic indicators are dependent upon its information. It not only reveals information about the labor market, but about income and production as well. In short, it provides clues about other economic indicators reported for the month and plays a big role in influencing financial market psychology during the month. Additionally, the Fed has made 6.5 percent unemployment a threshold for considering changes in policy - both for quantitative easing and the fed funds rate. And the Fed has emphasized that it is overall labor market conditions that matter - not just a specific number.
Interpretation
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Nonfarm payroll employment indicates the current level of economic activity. Increases in nonfarm payrolls translate into earnings that workers will spend on goods and services in the economy. The greater the increase in employment, the faster is the total economic growth. When the economy is in the mature phase of an expansion, rapid increases in employment cause fears of inflationary pressures if rapid demand for goods and services cannot be met by current production.
When the average workweek trends up, it supports production gains in the current period and portends additional employment increases. When the average workweek is in a declining mode, it probably is signaling a potential slowdown in employment growth-or even outright declines in employment in case of recession.
Gains in average hourly earnings represent wage pressures. It is worth noting that these figures aren't adjusted for overtime pay or shifts in the composition of the workforce, which affects wages on its own. Market participants believe that a rising trend in hourly earnings will lead to higher inflation. But if increased wages are matched by productivity gains, producers likely will not increase product prices with wages because their unit labor costs are stable.
