Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Private Payrolls - M/M | 175,000 | 140,000 to 210,000 | 192,000 | 184,000 | 208,000 |
Highlights
There is little sign of weakness in hiring across sectors. Goods-producers added 47,000 jobs in April, the majority of which are 35,000 in construction. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs and natural resources are up 3,000 jobs. Service-providers' payrolls are up 145,000, over a third of which is a 56,000 rise in leisure and hospitality hiring. There are solid gains of 26,000 in both education and healthcare, and trade, transportation, and utilities. Professional services are up 22,000 and financial activities up 16,000. Other services have a small increase of 3,000 and the sole decrease is 4,000 in information with ongoing restructuring in the tech sector.
All sizes of establishments added jobs in April. Small firms (1-49 workers) have increased payrolls by 38,000, medium firms (50-499) added 62,000 jobs, and large businesses (500+) brought 98,000 workers on payroll.
The median change in annual pay is up 5.0 percent for job-stayers and up 9.3 percent for job-changers. Although churn in the labor market is less than it was, workers can still see significant improvement in pay if they change jobs where their skills and experience are most sought after.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.
By tracking jobs, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.