ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Private Payrolls - M/M175,000140,000 to 210,000192,000184,000208,000

Highlights

The ADP national employment report shows private employers added 192,000 in April after an upward revision with 208,000 new jobs in March. The April increase is above the consensus of 175,000 new hires in the Econoday survey of forecasters. ADP noted,"The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Pay growth continues to slow."

There is little sign of weakness in hiring across sectors. Goods-producers added 47,000 jobs in April, the majority of which are 35,000 in construction. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs and natural resources are up 3,000 jobs. Service-providers' payrolls are up 145,000, over a third of which is a 56,000 rise in leisure and hospitality hiring. There are solid gains of 26,000 in both education and healthcare, and trade, transportation, and utilities. Professional services are up 22,000 and financial activities up 16,000. Other services have a small increase of 3,000 and the sole decrease is 4,000 in information with ongoing restructuring in the tech sector.

All sizes of establishments added jobs in April. Small firms (1-49 workers) have increased payrolls by 38,000, medium firms (50-499) added 62,000 jobs, and large businesses (500+) brought 98,000 workers on payroll.

The median change in annual pay is up 5.0 percent for job-stayers and up 9.3 percent for job-changers. Although churn in the labor market is less than it was, workers can still see significant improvement in pay if they change jobs where their skills and experience are most sought after.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see ADP's April employment number at 175,000. This would compare with March growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 232,000. ADP's number for March was 184,000.

Definition

The national employment report from Automated Data Processing Inc. is computed from ADP payroll data and offers advance indications on the U.S. workforce. ADP's data cover more than 500,000 companies totaling more than 25 million employees. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Description

Market players have become accustomed to the excitement on employment Friday and realize the rich detail of the monthly employment situation can help set the tone for the entire month. While economists have improved their nonfarm payroll forecasts over the years, it is not unusual to see surprises on employment Friday. To that end, the ADP's national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the employment report.

The employment statistics also provide insight on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the list of enemies for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Fed to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Fed is limited in providing economic stimulus.

By tracking jobs, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.
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