Initial jobless claims are unchanged at 208,000 in the April 27 week after a negligible revision in the prior week. The four-week moving average is down 3,500 to 210,000 in the April 27 week after 213,500 in the prior week. The number of new claims is just below the consensus of 211,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The level of new claims has shown little variation since mid-February and remains at levels consistent with modest economic growth and a tight labor market.

Insured jobless claims are unchanged at 1.774 million in the April 20 week. The four-week moving average is down a small 3,750 to 1.789 million in the April 20 week. The level of those on the unemployment rolls has also been quite stable since mid-February and reflect that the number of recipients coming on to the rolls is about the same as those exiting. The insured rate of unemployment for those eligible for benefits remains at 1.2 percent in the April 20 week where it has been since March 2023.

If the number of job openings is declining and the pace of hiring decelerating, the number of workers being laid off is not much changed in recent months. Businesses continue to hold on to workers with experience and skills in the knowledge that these will be hard to replace, and if lost, more expensive to do so later on.

Jobless claims for the May 2 week are expected to come in at 211,000 versus 207,000 in the prior week which was the lowest level since mid-February.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.