Highlights
For this week, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, when many markets are closed in Europe and Asia for the May Day or Labor Day holiday. The Fed is expected to hold its short-term interest rate target steady for now amid sticky inflation but it may ease the pace of its quantitative tightening to supply more liquidity to the financial system. Friday's US jobs data is expected to show slower but still historically solid employment growth and an unchanged unemployment rate in April.
On Monday, the European Commission's economic sentiment index in April is expected to rise to 97.1 from March's 96.3, which remained well short of the 100 long-run average.
In Germany, the year-over-year increase in consumer price index is expected to rise to 2.3 percent in April from March's 2.2 percent that was down from 2.5 percent in February and 2.9 percent in January. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is seen up 2.3 percent after rising at the same pace in the prior month.
Among US data, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for April is forecast to show the general activity index extended its long contraction, at a consensus of minus 11.3 versus minus 14.4 in March.
Japan's unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 2.5 percent after unexpectedly rising to a five-month high of 2.6 percent in February from a nearly four-year low of 2.4 percent in January. The number of people who lost their jobs or retired likely fell on the month and those who had quit to look for other openings may have found work. Tight labor conditions are expected to continue as new regulations on limiting overtime hours for drivers, construction workers and doctors took effect on April 1.
Industrial production is forecast to rebound 3.5 percent on the month in March for the first rise in three months after unexpectedly falling 0.6 percent in February and plunging 6.7 percent in January, partially recovering from the effects of suspended vehicle output over a safety test scandal. The METI's survey of producers released last month indicated that output is expected to rebound 4.5 percent in March and rise a further 3.3 percent in April.
Retail sales in Japan are forecast to have risen 2.2 percent on the year in March after a 4.7 percent gain in February, led by solid department store sales and elevated food and beverage prices that continued to ease the impact of slow vehicle shipments as a result of suspended output over a safety scandal. On the month, retail sales are expected to post a third straight increase, up 0.6 percent after a solid 1.7 percent rise.
In Australia, retail sales are expected to post a 0.2 percent increase for a third straight monthly gain in March after rising 0.3 percent in February, which got a boost from Taylor Swift concerts, and following a 1.1 percent rise in January and a 2.1 percent plunge in December. Officials judged in February's report that underlying sales growth had"stagnated."
China's CFLP purchasing managers index (PMI) data is expected to show slower growth: 50.3 for manufacturers in April versus 50.8 in March, which was the first growth in six months, and 52.2 for services versus 53.0, which indicated the 15th straight month of expansion.
China's S&P PMI for the manufacturing sector is forecast at 51.0 in April, little changed from 51.1 in March, which was a fifth straight month of growth.
On Monday, the European Commission's economic sentiment index in April is expected to rise to 97.1 from March's 96.3, which remained well short of the 100 long-run average.
In Germany, the year-over-year increase in consumer price index is expected to rise to 2.3 percent in April from March's 2.2 percent that was down from 2.5 percent in February and 2.9 percent in January. The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is seen up 2.3 percent after rising at the same pace in the prior month.
Among US data, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for April is forecast to show the general activity index extended its long contraction, at a consensus of minus 11.3 versus minus 14.4 in March.
Japan's unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 2.5 percent after unexpectedly rising to a five-month high of 2.6 percent in February from a nearly four-year low of 2.4 percent in January. The number of people who lost their jobs or retired likely fell on the month and those who had quit to look for other openings may have found work. Tight labor conditions are expected to continue as new regulations on limiting overtime hours for drivers, construction workers and doctors took effect on April 1.
Industrial production is forecast to rebound 3.5 percent on the month in March for the first rise in three months after unexpectedly falling 0.6 percent in February and plunging 6.7 percent in January, partially recovering from the effects of suspended vehicle output over a safety test scandal. The METI's survey of producers released last month indicated that output is expected to rebound 4.5 percent in March and rise a further 3.3 percent in April.
Retail sales in Japan are forecast to have risen 2.2 percent on the year in March after a 4.7 percent gain in February, led by solid department store sales and elevated food and beverage prices that continued to ease the impact of slow vehicle shipments as a result of suspended output over a safety scandal. On the month, retail sales are expected to post a third straight increase, up 0.6 percent after a solid 1.7 percent rise.
In Australia, retail sales are expected to post a 0.2 percent increase for a third straight monthly gain in March after rising 0.3 percent in February, which got a boost from Taylor Swift concerts, and following a 1.1 percent rise in January and a 2.1 percent plunge in December. Officials judged in February's report that underlying sales growth had"stagnated."
China's CFLP purchasing managers index (PMI) data is expected to show slower growth: 50.3 for manufacturers in April versus 50.8 in March, which was the first growth in six months, and 52.2 for services versus 53.0, which indicated the 15th straight month of expansion.
China's S&P PMI for the manufacturing sector is forecast at 51.0 in April, little changed from 51.1 in March, which was a fifth straight month of growth.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
