Highlights
For this week, Canada's CPI data for March is expected to show inflation remains around 3 percent and thus that the path toward the bank's 2 percent target is uneven. The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at a restrictive level of 5.0 percent for the sixth straight meeting last week. Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters that a June rate is within the realm of possibilities but stressed that officials need to see inflation continue to ease further.
The yen remains weak, limiting Japan's purchasing power and pushing up import costs. Investors are betting that the Bank of Japan's future rate hikes will be very gradual and the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to start lowering interest rates as the US economy has been resilient and inflation remains sticky. The yen has depreciated to ¥153.30, a nearly 34-year low, after firming to ¥147 in early March on emerging signs that the BoJ wouldn't wait until April to change policy. Last month, the bank did conduct its first rate hike in 17 years and ended the seven-year-old yield curve control framework, but the move didn't support the yen as Governor Kazuo Ueda said financial conditions were expected to remain accommodative for now.
Japanese officials have repeatedly said they are watching the currency market with a high sense of urgency, suggesting they are prepared to intervene. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has been warning against one-sided yen selling, saying the government will respond to excessive moves (in the currency market) appropriately, without ruling out any options. The MoF may step in with yen buying but it has been cautious when the dollar is appreciating against most currencies. The BoJ would not raise rates just to try to guide the yen higher.
On Monday before the US markets open, India's wholesale price index due at 2:30 a.m. EDT (1830 GMT) is expected to show a 0.7 percent rise on year in March (two forecasts), up from a 0.2 percent gain in February.
Eurozone industrial production in February is expected to rise a monthly 0.9 percent after falling an unexpectedly steep 3.2 percent in January. Consensus for February's year-over-year rate is 5.7 percent contraction versus January contraction of 6.7 percent, which was the lowest level of production since September 2020.
In the US, March retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month versus February's nearly as-expected and very solid gain of 0.6 percent. Excluding vehicles, sales are forecast to rise 0.5 percent following a 0.3 percent gain and those excluding autos and gasoline are seen up 0.5 percent after rising at the same pace the previous month.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index is expected to bounce back in April to minus 5.1 following March's nearly 13-point fall to minus 20.9. The index has been volatile this year.
Business inventories in February are expected to rise 0.4 percent following no change in January, when a build for retailers was offset by draws for manufacturers and wholesalers.
The April housing market index is expected hold onto March's higher-than-expected 51 in March.
Canadian manufacturing sales in February are expected to rise 0.7 percent on the month after increasing 0.2 percent in January and falling 1.1 percent in December.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion at a Tokyo conference on"Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth" hosted by the Bank of Japan and the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific at 2:55 a.m. EDT (1855 GMT), which is 3:55 p.m. JST Monday.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will speak before the hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT).
In China, the year-to-date increase in fixed asset investment is expected to slow to 4.0 percent in March from 4.2 percent in the last report which covered the combined months of January and February.The GDP growth on year is also forecast to decelerate to 4.9 percent in the January-March quarter from 5.2 percent in the previous quarter while the quarter-over-quarter growth is seen rising to 1.5 percent from 1.0 percent.
Industrial production is expected to show a slower 6.0 percent increase on year in March from 7.0 percent in the combined months of February and January and 6.8 percent in December. The pace of increase in retail sales is also expected to ease to 5.0 percent from 5.5 percent in the combined months of January and February and 7.4 percent in December.
The yen remains weak, limiting Japan's purchasing power and pushing up import costs. Investors are betting that the Bank of Japan's future rate hikes will be very gradual and the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to start lowering interest rates as the US economy has been resilient and inflation remains sticky. The yen has depreciated to ¥153.30, a nearly 34-year low, after firming to ¥147 in early March on emerging signs that the BoJ wouldn't wait until April to change policy. Last month, the bank did conduct its first rate hike in 17 years and ended the seven-year-old yield curve control framework, but the move didn't support the yen as Governor Kazuo Ueda said financial conditions were expected to remain accommodative for now.
Japanese officials have repeatedly said they are watching the currency market with a high sense of urgency, suggesting they are prepared to intervene. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has been warning against one-sided yen selling, saying the government will respond to excessive moves (in the currency market) appropriately, without ruling out any options. The MoF may step in with yen buying but it has been cautious when the dollar is appreciating against most currencies. The BoJ would not raise rates just to try to guide the yen higher.
On Monday before the US markets open, India's wholesale price index due at 2:30 a.m. EDT (1830 GMT) is expected to show a 0.7 percent rise on year in March (two forecasts), up from a 0.2 percent gain in February.
Eurozone industrial production in February is expected to rise a monthly 0.9 percent after falling an unexpectedly steep 3.2 percent in January. Consensus for February's year-over-year rate is 5.7 percent contraction versus January contraction of 6.7 percent, which was the lowest level of production since September 2020.
In the US, March retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on the month versus February's nearly as-expected and very solid gain of 0.6 percent. Excluding vehicles, sales are forecast to rise 0.5 percent following a 0.3 percent gain and those excluding autos and gasoline are seen up 0.5 percent after rising at the same pace the previous month.
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index is expected to bounce back in April to minus 5.1 following March's nearly 13-point fall to minus 20.9. The index has been volatile this year.
Business inventories in February are expected to rise 0.4 percent following no change in January, when a build for retailers was offset by draws for manufacturers and wholesalers.
The April housing market index is expected hold onto March's higher-than-expected 51 in March.
Canadian manufacturing sales in February are expected to rise 0.7 percent on the month after increasing 0.2 percent in January and falling 1.1 percent in December.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion at a Tokyo conference on"Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth" hosted by the Bank of Japan and the IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific at 2:55 a.m. EDT (1855 GMT), which is 3:55 p.m. JST Monday.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly will speak before the hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT).
In China, the year-to-date increase in fixed asset investment is expected to slow to 4.0 percent in March from 4.2 percent in the last report which covered the combined months of January and February.The GDP growth on year is also forecast to decelerate to 4.9 percent in the January-March quarter from 5.2 percent in the previous quarter while the quarter-over-quarter growth is seen rising to 1.5 percent from 1.0 percent.
Industrial production is expected to show a slower 6.0 percent increase on year in March from 7.0 percent in the combined months of February and January and 6.8 percent in December. The pace of increase in retail sales is also expected to ease to 5.0 percent from 5.5 percent in the combined months of January and February and 7.4 percent in December.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
