The April survey was much weaker than expected, but probably biased by Easter distortions. At minus 44 percent, the headline index was down sharply from March's 2 percent, itself probably biased up by the early Easter this year. In any event, this month saw the weakest reading since January and, with actual sales rising a monthly 0.6 percent in April 2023, should be indicative of a particularly poor period for the retail sector.

Sales for the time of year (minus 20 percent after 0 percent), the best guide to the underlying picture, were well below seasonal norms and are expected to remain so in May (minus 25 percent). Moreover, orders placed with suppliers (minus 49 percent) have now fallen for an entire year and are seen declining again in mid-quarter (minus 30 percent).

Today's report warns that retailers face a difficult second quarter, making for some downside risk to GDP growth. The data reduce the UK RPI to minus 15 and the RPI-P to minus 30. Economic activity is running cooler than market expectations and mainly due to the underperformance of the real economy.

The headline sales index is seen at minus 2 percent in April, down from 2 percent in March.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of the UK retail, wholesale and motor trade sector. Volume sales, orders on suppliers, sales for the time of year and stocks are all covered and the quarterly survey also covers imports, selling prices, numbers employed, investment and business situation. Financial markets tend to concentrate on the CBI's annual sales growth measure as a leading indicator of the official retail sales report.

This survey is a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels. The monthly update provides a vital update on volume of sales, orders and stocks. Like the industrial survey, it carries significant weight in the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within government as a highly respected barometer of high street trade. It is considered to be an advance indicator of retail sales although it is not well correlated with the official data on a monthly basis.