| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 102 | 100 | 102 | 103 |
Highlights
Sentiment in French manufacturing unexpectedly deteriorated in April. At 100, the headline index was 3 points below its upwardly revised reading in March and well short of the market consensus. The latest outturn matched its long-run average.
Production (0 percent after 1 percent) stalled and future prospects were dented by a steeper fall in order books (minus 19 percent after minus 14 percent). General production expectations (minus 7 percent) were unchanged while personal production expectations (9 percent after 10 percent) edged a little weaker.
Elsewhere, sentiment also worsened in both services (100 after 103) and construction (101 after 103) but improved in retail trade (103 after 100). As a result, the economy-wide gauge dipped a point and, at 99, moved back below its historic norm.
Today's surprisingly soft results contrast with April's flash PMI which found the economy picking up some momentum on the back of a stronger services sector. However, both reports show manufacturing still struggling to climb out of its downturn. The French RPI now stands at minus 4, showing overall economic activity running much as expected but this masks weak prices and, with the RPI-P at 15, modest outperformance by the real economy.
Production (0 percent after 1 percent) stalled and future prospects were dented by a steeper fall in order books (minus 19 percent after minus 14 percent). General production expectations (minus 7 percent) were unchanged while personal production expectations (9 percent after 10 percent) edged a little weaker.
Elsewhere, sentiment also worsened in both services (100 after 103) and construction (101 after 103) but improved in retail trade (103 after 100). As a result, the economy-wide gauge dipped a point and, at 99, moved back below its historic norm.
Today's surprisingly soft results contrast with April's flash PMI which found the economy picking up some momentum on the back of a stronger services sector. However, both reports show manufacturing still struggling to climb out of its downturn. The French RPI now stands at minus 4, showing overall economic activity running much as expected but this masks weak prices and, with the RPI-P at 15, modest outperformance by the real economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sentiment in manufacturing is seen unchanged at 102 in April, a couple of points above its long-run average.
Definition
INSEE is France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. INSEE's business climate indicator aims to summarise the mood of French business leaders. The survey asks questions about output, orders and inventories and expectations for future business. These are synthesised into an overall index of sentiment, adjusted so that the long-run average is 100. The main focus is the manufacturing sector but the survey also provides separate confidence measures for construction, retail trade and services on a monthly basis and for wholesale trade every other month.
Description
If you are looking for clues on French business sentiment, this survey would be a good starting point. The indicator is based on a survey that asks business leaders about their expectations for new orders and their overall impressions of the economy. The results are a diffusion index that reflects the difference between positive and negative responses as a percentage of the total number of answers.
