| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.26% | 0.03% | |
| Year over Year | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 3.1 percent on the year in March, slowing sharply from an increase of 5.5 percent on the year for January and February combined, and well below the consensus forecast of 5.0 percent. Separate data for January and February are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.26 percent in March after advancing 0.03 percent in January/February.
Officials characterised GDP and monthly data published today as showing that"the national economy continued the good momentum of rebound" and indicated that they see the current policy stance as appropriate. Officials also warned, however, that"the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, and the foundation for stable and sound economic growth is not solid yet".
GDP data published today were stronger than consensus but monthly data were generally weaker than expected. The China RPI fell from plus 7 to minus 34 and the RPI-P fell from plus 30 to minus 27, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in below consensus forecasts.
Officials characterised GDP and monthly data published today as showing that"the national economy continued the good momentum of rebound" and indicated that they see the current policy stance as appropriate. Officials also warned, however, that"the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, and the foundation for stable and sound economic growth is not solid yet".
GDP data published today were stronger than consensus but monthly data were generally weaker than expected. The China RPI fell from plus 7 to minus 34 and the RPI-P fell from plus 30 to minus 27, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in below consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After rising a year-over-year 5.5 percent in the combined months of January and February and rising 7.4 percent in December, sales in March are expected to rise 5.0 percent.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
