| Actual | Previous | Consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -1.0% | 1.0% | |
| Year over Year | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
Highlights
China's headline consumer price index rose 0.1 percent on the year in March after advancing 0.7 percent on the year in February. Recent volatility in headline inflation reflects the timing of lunar new year holidays, which occurred in January in 2023 but in February in 2024. Excluding this impact, headline inflation has now been close to zero or in negative territory for twelve months. The index fell 1.0 percent on the month after advancing 1.0 percent previously. Producer price inflation data also published today also showed ongoing weakness in price pressures.
Today's data were weaker than the consensus forecast for a year-over-year increase of 0.5 percent in the CPI. The China RPI fell from plus 79 to plus 36 while the RPI-P fell from plus 75 to plus 70, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are still coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Today's data were weaker than the consensus forecast for a year-over-year increase of 0.5 percent in the CPI. The China RPI fell from plus 79 to plus 36 while the RPI-P fell from plus 75 to plus 70, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are still coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
April's year-over-year rate is expected to edge lower to 0.5 percent versus March's 0.7 percent. China's CPI last peaked in January last year at 2.1 percent.
Definition
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index that measures changes over time in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by residents, which reflects the overall changes in price level.
Description
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation, which is carefully monitored by investors worldwide. Investors worldwide monitor Chinese price changes closely. A pickup in inflation could mean an increase in interest rates is in the offing from the People's Bank of China while an easing could mean looser monetary policy. The monthly CPI is broken down by 8 categories with more detail available on the following day including aggregate information by urban and rural areas and provinces.
The CPI measures the change in the level of prices for a specified basket of goods and services normally purchased by urban and rural residents. Approximately 226 areas throughout the country are covered, including 80 counties and 146 cities. The current CPI is an annually chained Laspeyres price index and has been available since 2001. From 1978 to 2000, the index was compiled using current year weights for most items.
The CPI measures the change in the level of prices for a specified basket of goods and services normally purchased by urban and rural residents. Approximately 226 areas throughout the country are covered, including 80 counties and 146 cities. The current CPI is an annually chained Laspeyres price index and has been available since 2001. From 1978 to 2000, the index was compiled using current year weights for most items.
