| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence | 95.8 | 97.0 | ||
| Manufacturing Confidence | 87.6 | 88.6 | 89.5 | 88.4 |
| Consumer Confidence | 95.2 | 96.5 | 97.0 |
Highlights
Overall business confidence worsened in April. At 95.8, the overall sentiment gauge was down from the March's unrevised 97.0 to match its lowest reading since last November.
Confidence in manufacturing (87.6 after 88.4) unexpectedly deteriorated and wiped out most of the previous month's 1.0 point increase and so remains historically weak. Elsewhere, services (99.5 after 100.7), construction (87.6 after 88.4) and retail trade (103.0 after 104.5) all similarly lost ground.
The consumer sector also followed suit with a 1.3 point slide to a surprisingly low 95.2. This was its weakest print since November 2023 and leaves a modestly declining trend.
Overall, today's update is disappointingly soft and suggests a lacklustre start to the current quarter by the Italian economy. Moreover, with the RPI now down at minus 36 and the RPI-P at minus 30, economic activity in general is falling quite well behind market forecasts.
Confidence in manufacturing (87.6 after 88.4) unexpectedly deteriorated and wiped out most of the previous month's 1.0 point increase and so remains historically weak. Elsewhere, services (99.5 after 100.7), construction (87.6 after 88.4) and retail trade (103.0 after 104.5) all similarly lost ground.
The consumer sector also followed suit with a 1.3 point slide to a surprisingly low 95.2. This was its weakest print since November 2023 and leaves a modestly declining trend.
Overall, today's update is disappointingly soft and suggests a lacklustre start to the current quarter by the Italian economy. Moreover, with the RPI now down at minus 36 and the RPI-P at minus 30, economic activity in general is falling quite well behind market forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence in both manufacturing (89.5 after 88.6) and the household sector (97.0 after 96.5) is expected to improve in April.
Definition
The Italian statistics office (Istat) conducts business and consumer confidence surveys over the first fifteen and ten working days of each reference month respectively. These provide information about current and expected developments in key sector variables. The largely qualitative results are synthesized for each survey into a single number that provides an overall measure of sentiment. Business confidence reflects the combined results of separate surveys covering manufacturing, retail, construction and services.
Description
If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.
