| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Oct-23 | 11.604 | 100.4% | 2.170 | 104.1% | 1.763 | 97.8% | 5.972 |
| Nov-23 | 11.956 | 101.4% | 1.865 | 98.1% | 1.751 | 92.5% | 5.752 |
| Dec-23 | 12.016 | 102.4% | 1.698 | 95.2% | 1.724 | 99.0% | 5.949 |
| Jan-24 | 11.930 | 101.7% | 1.791 | 92.5% | 1.843 | 99.8% | 6.366 |
| Feb-24 | 11.797 | 100.4% | 1.890 | 109.7% | 1.793 | 103.4% | 6.638 |
| Mar-24 | 11.838 | 101.3% | 1.746 | 87.7% | 1.706 | 86.3% | 6.656 |
| Apr-24 | 11.821 | 101.5% | - | - | - | - | 6.588 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Apr | 102.0% | 101.6% | 102.5% | 95.5% |
| Placements | Mar | 92.3% | 89.3% | 94.7% | 99.4% |
| Marketings | Mar | 88.6% | 86.5% | 91.3% | 98.9% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of March at 87.7% of last year versus an average trade expectations of 92.3% and a range of estimates from 89.3% to 94.7%. Marketings came in at 86.3% of last year versus 88.6% expected (range 86.5%-91.3%). On feed supply as of April 1 came in at 101.5% of last year versus 102.0% expected (range 101.6%-102.5%).
The report was bullish, particularly for the deferred contracts, because placements came in below the lower end of pre-report estimates, which suggests an even tighter supply this summer than anticipated. However, a report after the close on Friday that the USDA had confirmed cow-to-cow transmission in the spread of bird flu virus in dairy herds could undermine support from the on-feed report, and we could see June cattle open lower on Monday. The USDA has not imposed any quarantines.
The report was bullish, particularly for the deferred contracts, because placements came in below the lower end of pre-report estimates, which suggests an even tighter supply this summer than anticipated. However, a report after the close on Friday that the USDA had confirmed cow-to-cow transmission in the spread of bird flu virus in dairy herds could undermine support from the on-feed report, and we could see June cattle open lower on Monday. The USDA has not imposed any quarantines.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
