ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate245,000242,195253,468260,047

Highlights

Housing starts fell back 6.9 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 242,195 units, near the consensus forecast of 245,000 in an Econoday survey. The decrease was slightly offset by an upward revision to February's estimate now at 260,047, up from 253,468 initially reported.

Housing starts in urban centers fell 7 percent to 220,743 units, with declines in both multi-unit and single-detached categories.

The six-month trend for total housing starts declined 1.6 percent to 243,957 units.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Housing starts are expected to slow to 245,000 in March versus February's larger-than-expected 253,468 and January's lower-than-expected 223,176.

Definition

Released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the monthly housing starts data capture the annualised number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. Statistics are provided for urban and rural areas, the former with a population of at least 10,000. CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, a survey of these centres is conducted and the estimate revised.

Description

Housing starts are a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. Home builders usually don't start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its completion. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, and income will be pumped back into the economy.

Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture, and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic"ripple effect" can be substantial. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing starts have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the housing starts data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.
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