The Chicago Fed national activity index is up to 0.15 in March after an upward revision to 0.09 in February. On net, the four broad categories are stronger in March, but not uniformly. Production-related indicators have a 0.11 contribution to the CFNAI, down a bit from 0.13 in February, but still a positive. The sales, orders, and inventories category is neutral (0.00) in March, up from minus 0.05 in February. The employment indicators category turns positive at 0.04 in March from minus 0.01 in February. The personal consumption and housing category dips below neutral to minus 0.01 in March after 0.02 in February.

The February-March 2024 months are the first time the index has had consecutive positive readings since the three months in July-September 2022. It is too soon to suggest that a modest upward trend is building for the CFNAI, but it does hint at firmer and more stable expansionary conditions.

The CFNAI diffusion index three-month moving average is up to minus 0.06 in March after minus 0.16 in February. The diffusion index has not been positive since September 2023 when it was just above neutral at 0.01. The Chicago Fed said that 50 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions and 35 made negative contributions. While 50 individual indicators see improvement in March from February, 35 are lower. The Chicago Fed noted,"Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions." The Chicago Fed says that a CFNAI diffusion index above minus 0.35 is consistent with expansion.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.