| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Highlights
The economy performed in line with expectations in mid-quarter. A 0.1 percent monthly rise in real GDP matched the market consensus and followed a slightly stronger revised 0.3 percent advance in January. This made for the first back-to-back increase since January/February 2023 and lifted the 3-monthly change by 0.2 percentage points to 0.2 percent. However, base effects saw annual growth dip from minus 0.1 percent to minus 0.2 percent.
The monthly headline advance in part reflected a 0.1 percent increase in services but it was the goods producing sector, where output expanded fully 1.1 percent, that did most of the work. Within this, manufacturing expanded 1.2 percent. However, elsewhere, construction fell 1.9 percent, more than reversing January's 1.1 percent gain and its fourth decline in the last five months.
Nonetheless, total output now stands at its highest mark since last June and average GDP in January/February 0.3 percent above its average level last quarter. Without any revisions, March will need at least a 1.1 percent monthly contraction to prevent positive first quarter growth. Today's updates raise the UK RPI to 1 and the RPI-P to 10, indicating that while overall economic activity is evolving much as expected, the real economy is slightly outperforming. The BoE will be all the more wary about cutting interest rates too soon.
The monthly headline advance in part reflected a 0.1 percent increase in services but it was the goods producing sector, where output expanded fully 1.1 percent, that did most of the work. Within this, manufacturing expanded 1.2 percent. However, elsewhere, construction fell 1.9 percent, more than reversing January's 1.1 percent gain and its fourth decline in the last five months.
Nonetheless, total output now stands at its highest mark since last June and average GDP in January/February 0.3 percent above its average level last quarter. Without any revisions, March will need at least a 1.1 percent monthly contraction to prevent positive first quarter growth. Today's updates raise the UK RPI to 1 and the RPI-P to 10, indicating that while overall economic activity is evolving much as expected, the real economy is slightly outperforming. The BoE will be all the more wary about cutting interest rates too soon.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP in the month of February is expected to rise 0.1 percent versus as-expected 0.2 percent expansion in January that saw gains for both wholesale and retail.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
