Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Highlights
Within the region's quarterly advance, France and Germany expanded 0.2 percent, Italy 0.3 percent and Spain 0.7 percent for a second straight quarter. Elsewhere, Ireland (1.1 percent) posted the strongest gain and in so doing moved out of recession. Latvia and Lithuania (both 0.8 percent) also had a good quarter and there were no outright contractions.
In sum, the first quarter report suggests that the Eurozone economy is starting to recover from the effects of earlier ECB tightening. This will not surprise the central bank but it will help to ensure that it keeps a very wary eye on a still very tight labour market and wages for fear that stronger growth might jeopardise the current disinflationary trend. That said, today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at minus 10 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. Limited underperformance by economic activity in general is solely due to unexpectedly soft prices just what the central bank wants to see.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.