ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.3%0.0%
Year over Year0.2%0.4%0.1%

Highlights

The preliminary flash data showed a return to positive growth at the start of the year. However, a slightly larger than expected 0.3 percent quarterly increase in GDP followed a downward revision to the fourth quarter which, at now minus 0.1 percent, means the Eurozone economy ended 2023 in mild recession. Annual growth last quarter was 0.4 percent, up from 0.1 percent previously.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France and Germany expanded 0.2 percent, Italy 0.3 percent and Spain 0.7 percent for a second straight quarter. Elsewhere, Ireland (1.1 percent) posted the strongest gain and in so doing moved out of recession. Latvia and Lithuania (both 0.8 percent) also had a good quarter and there were no outright contractions.

In sum, the first quarter report suggests that the Eurozone economy is starting to recover from the effects of earlier ECB tightening. This will not surprise the central bank but it will help to ensure that it keeps a very wary eye on a still very tight labour market and wages for fear that stronger growth might jeopardise the current disinflationary trend. That said, today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at minus 10 and the RPI-P at exactly zero. Limited underperformance by economic activity in general is solely due to unexpectedly soft prices just what the central bank wants to see.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

First-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to expand a quarterly 0.2 percent for year-over-year growth of also 0.2 percent. These would compare with no quarterly change in the fourth quarter and 0.1 percent expansion on the year.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. The first is the preliminary flash, introduced in April 2016 and limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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