| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$10.5B | A$7.28B | A$11.027B | A$10.058B |
| Imports - M/M | 4.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | 17.1% | -1.6% | -1.7% | |
| Exports - M/M | -2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -2.4% | -7.2% | -8.8% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed from a A$10.058 billion in January to A$7.28 billion in February, below the consensus forecast of A$10.5 billion. Exports fell after a previous increase while growth in imports picked up sharply.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 2.2 percent on the month in February after advancing 1.5 percent in January. Exports of non-rural goods were flat on the month, but exports of rural goods fell sharply, largely reflecting weakness in exports of cereals, meat, and wool. Exports fell 2.4 percent on the year in February after dropping 8.8 percent in January.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 4.8 percent on the month in February, up from an increase of 1.4 percent in January. Imports of consumption goods and capital goods both recorded weaker growth but imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rebounded sharply after a previous decline. Total imports surged 17.1 percent on the year in original terms in February after dropping 1.7 percent in January.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 2.2 percent on the month in February after advancing 1.5 percent in January. Exports of non-rural goods were flat on the month, but exports of rural goods fell sharply, largely reflecting weakness in exports of cereals, meat, and wool. Exports fell 2.4 percent on the year in February after dropping 8.8 percent in January.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 4.8 percent on the month in February, up from an increase of 1.4 percent in January. Imports of consumption goods and capital goods both recorded weaker growth but imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rebounded sharply after a previous decline. Total imports surged 17.1 percent on the year in original terms in February after dropping 1.7 percent in January.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in February is a surplus of A$10.5 billion versus January's A$11.0 billion surplus that for a second month in a row saw monthly gains for both imports and exports.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
