Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Balance | $-340B | $-340B to $-220B | $-236.5B | $-296.3B |
Highlights
Year-to-date receipts are led by individual income taxes at $1.089 trillion followed by social insurance and retirement at $802 billion. Outlays are led by social security at $715 billion with net interest, at $429 billion, climbing at a fast rate.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The Federal government borrows money through the issuance of Treasury securities; so higher deficits mean a larger supply of securities and (again, assuming constant demand) lower prices. With notes and bonds, lower prices are equated with higher yields, so in this example, the government borrows money at higher interest rates. That impact ripples across all other interest rate-bearing securities and creates a higher interest-rate environment for stocks, which is bearish.
In addition to following the trend in the budget deficit or surplus, investors can gain valuable insight to the state of the economy by looking at the government's tax receipts. Higher tax receipts lead to an improved deficit situation when economic conditions are strong; conversely, lower tax receipts reflect a sluggish economic environment.