| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPI-FD - M/M | 0.3% | 0.2% to 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| PPI-FD - Y/Y | 2.3% | 2.1% to 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | |
| Ex-Food & Energy - M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y | 2.3% | 2.1% to 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | |
| Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services - M/M | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services - Y/Y | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Producer prices ended the first quarter on a softer note than expected, with the headline index up 0.2 percent on the month and 2.1 percent year-over-year, below Econoday's consensus forecasts of 0.3 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The 12-month rate was still up from 1.6 percent in February, reaching its highest level since April 2023 and continuing its recent acceleration.
When excluding food and energy, the PPI increase slowed to 0.2 percent from rose 0.3 percent, as expected. However, the 12-month rate came in at 2.4 percent, above the highest forecast of 2.3 percent. When also excluding trade services, producer prices rose 0.2 percent on the month after 0.3 percent in February. The 12-month rate increased to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent.
The good news from lower-than-expected headline numbers was somewhat offset by the higher-than-expected core PPI excluding food and energy. The report comes on the back of a consumer price data that marked a setback for the Federal Reserve as the March core CPI exceeded expectations at 3.8 percent. Taken together, the two reports draw a picture that provides further reason for the central bank to continue to wait before cutting rates.
At the producer level, goods prices edged down 0.1 percent in March, for a 0.8 percent year-over-year increase. Food rose 0.8 percent while energy fell 1.6 percent from February.
Services were up 0.3 percent on the month and 2.8 percent year-over-year. Trade services were up 0.3 percent and transportation and warehousing 0.8 percent on the month.
When excluding food and energy, the PPI increase slowed to 0.2 percent from rose 0.3 percent, as expected. However, the 12-month rate came in at 2.4 percent, above the highest forecast of 2.3 percent. When also excluding trade services, producer prices rose 0.2 percent on the month after 0.3 percent in February. The 12-month rate increased to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent.
The good news from lower-than-expected headline numbers was somewhat offset by the higher-than-expected core PPI excluding food and energy. The report comes on the back of a consumer price data that marked a setback for the Federal Reserve as the March core CPI exceeded expectations at 3.8 percent. Taken together, the two reports draw a picture that provides further reason for the central bank to continue to wait before cutting rates.
At the producer level, goods prices edged down 0.1 percent in March, for a 0.8 percent year-over-year increase. Food rose 0.8 percent while energy fell 1.6 percent from February.
Services were up 0.3 percent on the month and 2.8 percent year-over-year. Trade services were up 0.3 percent and transportation and warehousing 0.8 percent on the month.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Producer prices in March are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month versus a 0.6 percent rise in February. The annual rate in March is seen at 2.3 percent versus February's 1.6 percent which, like the monthly rate, was higher than expected. March's ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month and up 2.3 percent on the year.
Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.
Description
The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to final consumers. A portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months.
While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. As a starting point, interest rates have an"inflation premium" and components for risk factors. A lender will want the money paid back from a loan to at least have the same purchasing power as when loaned. The interest rate at a minimum equals the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power and this generally is based on the CPI. Changes in inflation lead to changes in interest rates and, in turn, in equity prices.
The PPI comes in two key main versions: final demand (FD) and intermediate demand (ID). The final demand portion is composed of six main price indexes: final demand goods; final demand trade services; final demand transportation and warehousing services; final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing; final demand construction; and overall final demand.
The intermediate demand portion of the FD-ID system tracks price changes for goods, services, and construction products sold to businesses as inputs to production, excluding capital investment. There are two parallel treatments of intermediate demand, each constructed from the identical set of commodity price indexes. The first treatment organizes commodities according to commodity type, and the second organizes commodities using a stage-based, production flow model.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to producers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
Under the prior PPI system, the producer price index was substantially more volatile than the consumer price index because the CPI included services while the PPI did not. Volatility has been reduced substantially in the PPI-FD due to the inclusion of services but the PPI still is more volatile than the CPI. Wages are a bigger share of the costs at the retail level than at the producer level and this plays a role in the CPI’s lower volatility. Also, the PPI does not include owners’ equivalent rent—a large and slow moving component in the CPI. Food and energy prices are major sources of volatility in the PPI, hence, the greater focus on the"core PPI" which excludes these two components.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. As a starting point, interest rates have an"inflation premium" and components for risk factors. A lender will want the money paid back from a loan to at least have the same purchasing power as when loaned. The interest rate at a minimum equals the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power and this generally is based on the CPI. Changes in inflation lead to changes in interest rates and, in turn, in equity prices.
The PPI comes in two key main versions: final demand (FD) and intermediate demand (ID). The final demand portion is composed of six main price indexes: final demand goods; final demand trade services; final demand transportation and warehousing services; final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing; final demand construction; and overall final demand.
The intermediate demand portion of the FD-ID system tracks price changes for goods, services, and construction products sold to businesses as inputs to production, excluding capital investment. There are two parallel treatments of intermediate demand, each constructed from the identical set of commodity price indexes. The first treatment organizes commodities according to commodity type, and the second organizes commodities using a stage-based, production flow model.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to producers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
Under the prior PPI system, the producer price index was substantially more volatile than the consumer price index because the CPI included services while the PPI did not. Volatility has been reduced substantially in the PPI-FD due to the inclusion of services but the PPI still is more volatile than the CPI. Wages are a bigger share of the costs at the retail level than at the producer level and this plays a role in the CPI’s lower volatility. Also, the PPI does not include owners’ equivalent rent—a large and slow moving component in the CPI. Food and energy prices are major sources of volatility in the PPI, hence, the greater focus on the"core PPI" which excludes these two components.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
