ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate16.0M14.8M to 16.1M15.5M15.8M15.7M
North American-Made Sales - Annual Rate12.0M12.3M

Highlights

Sales of new motor vehicles slipped to a 15.489 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate in March after 15.697 million units in February. The pace of sales is below the consensus of 16.0 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. While the decline is not significant and the underlying pace of sales fairly stable, it does suggest that dealer incentives are not tempting more buyers for cars and light trucks. Sales of domestically-produced motor vehicles fell to 11.968 million units in March after 12.277 million units in February.

Sales of passenger cars were little changed at 3.028 million units in March after 3.099 million units in February. Sales of light trucks which include SUVs, minivans, and crossovers dipped to 12.462 million units after 12.598 million units in February. Sales of light trucks continue to dominate motor vehicles with an 80 percent share of the market despite gasoline prices remaining relatively high in the past few years.

Sales of heavy trucks mostly for business use have moderated since the start of the year. In March, the pace of heavy truck sales was 478,000, down from 499,000 in February and 507,000 in January. Higher financing costs may be a factor in decisions to invest less in equipment.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Unit vehicle sales in March are expected to increase to a 16.0 million annualized rate from February's stronger-than-expected 15.8 million rate that was up sharply from January's 14.9 million.

Definition

Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points.

Description

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s.

Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market during the 2001 recession but then, boosted by a low interest rate environment, rose sharply through 2007 before falling sharply during the Great Recession. Sales then recovered and, once again boosted by low rates, began a long period of steady and favorable growth.

In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.
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