| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.3% | 0.1% to 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 0.4% | -0.8% | -0.9% | ||
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.3% | 0.1% to 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | -1.4% | -1.8% | -2.0% |
Highlights
Import prices increased more than expected in March, with a 0.4 percent gain on the month, exceeding the 0.3 percent consensus forecast in an Econoday survey and up from 0.3 percent in February. On a 12-month basis, the upward trend continued with the index rising 0.4 percent, the first and largest advance since January 2023, following declines of 0.9 percent in February and 1.3 percent in January.
Fuel import prices were up 4.7 percent on the month, while the index edged up 0.1 percent excluding fuel.
Export price growth slowed to 0.3 percent, as expected, from 0.7 percent the previous month. The upward trend also continued on a year-over-year basis for export prices, although the index remained in negative territory with a 1.4 percent decline, the smallest 12-month decrease since February 2023.
Agricultural export prices were down 0.7 percent in March, erasing the previous month's increase. Non-agricultural export prices were up 0.4 percent after 0.6 percent in February.
Fuel import prices were up 4.7 percent on the month, while the index edged up 0.1 percent excluding fuel.
Export price growth slowed to 0.3 percent, as expected, from 0.7 percent the previous month. The upward trend also continued on a year-over-year basis for export prices, although the index remained in negative territory with a 1.4 percent decline, the smallest 12-month decrease since February 2023.
Agricultural export prices were down 0.7 percent in March, erasing the previous month's increase. Non-agricultural export prices were up 0.4 percent after 0.6 percent in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices in March are expected to increase 0.3 percent to match February's increase. Export prices, which in February rose 0.8 percent, are also expected to rise 0.3 percent. Pressures in this report had been deflationary but have been firming in recent reports.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
