ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index5148 to 525151

Highlights

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index remains at 51 in April after 51 in March. The reading matches the consensus of 51 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The index points to narrowly positive sentiment among builders of single-family homes while they await more clarity about the outlook for mortgage interest rates. Although homebuyers in the present market are becoming more resigned to the current mortgage rate environment, they remain highly sensitive to even small movements in rates that affect their ability to obtain a loan and afford a home purchase.

The Freddie Mac average monthly rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.85 percent for April to-date, slightly above the 6.82 percent in March and 6.81 percent in February. Those homebuyers lucky enough to have locked in a mortgage in January when the rate averaged 6.64 percent have probably already executed a contract and are out of the market. Homebuilders will be relying on those who are willing to borrow at current rates to purchase new construction while inventories of existing units are limited, although growing somewhat.

The detail indexes are little changed in April. The index for current sales of single-family homes is up to 57 in April after 56 in March. The index for expected sales dips to 60 in April from 62 in March. The buyer traffic index is up to 35 after 34 and is the highest since 35 in August 2023.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters expect April's housing market index to hold onto March's higher-than-expected 51 in March.

Definition

The housing market index is a monthly composite that tracks home builder assessments of present and future sales as well as buyer traffic. The index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes: present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

Description

This report provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the housing market index, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Whether the housing market index reflects new home sales or home resales, once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor and the builder. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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