Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 1.0% | 0.7% to 1.6% | 1.4% | -3.6% | -3.8% |
Highlights
Durable orders, which rose 1.4 percent in last week's first estimate, are revised a tenth lower to 1.3 percent. The first estimate for February's nondurable orders, part of today's report, jumped 1.6 percent (details for nondurables are limited).
New orders for core capital goods in February (nondefense ex-aircraft) are unrevised at the first estimate's 0.7 percent jump that, however, followed declines of 0.3 and 0.6 percent in the prior two months. Nevertheless, February's core gain does improve the outlook for business investment, which contributed only marginally to fourth quarter GDP.
Unfilled orders, which had been on a long run of gains, were unchanged for a second month in a row. Yet commercial aircraft were not behind the slowing as unfilled orders for nondefense aircraft and parts rose 0.5 percent in February on top of January's 0.4 percent build and that on top of December's 3.3 percent burst that was posted before Boeing's door-plug plunge at the beginning of the year.
Other positives include a 1.4 percent rise in February total shipments which reversed declines of 0.8 and 0.5 percent in the prior two months. February inventories rose 0.3 percent.
Yesterday's 50.3 showing for ISM's March index, which ended a long run of sub-50 contraction, together with this report point to a new plus for the US economy emerging momentum for manufacturing. This sector is traditionally considered a leading barometer for total economic change, something that won't be overlooked by the Federal Reserve and which pushes rate-cut prospects further back.
Also pushing back rate cuts is the indication from Econoday's Relative Performance Index which is holding in positive ground, at plus 12 to indicate recent US indicators on net are coming in just ahead of Econoday's consensus forecasts.