ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month1.0%0.7% to 1.6%1.4%-3.6%-3.8%

Highlights

Factory orders rose 1.4 percent in February, failing to reverse January's 3.8 percent downswing related to commercial aircraft but nevertheless showing solid breadth across categories. Excluding transportation, February orders jumped an outstanding 1.1 percent.

Durable orders, which rose 1.4 percent in last week's first estimate, are revised a tenth lower to 1.3 percent. The first estimate for February's nondurable orders, part of today's report, jumped 1.6 percent (details for nondurables are limited).

New orders for core capital goods in February (nondefense ex-aircraft) are unrevised at the first estimate's 0.7 percent jump that, however, followed declines of 0.3 and 0.6 percent in the prior two months. Nevertheless, February's core gain does improve the outlook for business investment, which contributed only marginally to fourth quarter GDP.

Unfilled orders, which had been on a long run of gains, were unchanged for a second month in a row. Yet commercial aircraft were not behind the slowing as unfilled orders for nondefense aircraft and parts rose 0.5 percent in February on top of January's 0.4 percent build and that on top of December's 3.3 percent burst that was posted before Boeing's door-plug plunge at the beginning of the year.

Other positives include a 1.4 percent rise in February total shipments which reversed declines of 0.8 and 0.5 percent in the prior two months. February inventories rose 0.3 percent.

Yesterday's 50.3 showing for ISM's March index, which ended a long run of sub-50 contraction, together with this report point to a new plus for the US economy emerging momentum for manufacturing. This sector is traditionally considered a leading barometer for total economic change, something that won't be overlooked by the Federal Reserve and which pushes rate-cut prospects further back.

Also pushing back rate cuts is the indication from Econoday's Relative Performance Index which is holding in positive ground, at plus 12 to indicate recent US indicators on net are coming in just ahead of Econoday's consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Factory orders are expected to rise 1.0 percent in February versus January's monthly 3.6 percent aircraft-driven decline. Durable goods orders for February, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, rose 1.4 percent on wide strength.

Definition

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.

Description

Investors want to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more moderate growth which is less likely to cause inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data like factory orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
Upcoming Events

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2025 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.