Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 205K to 215K | 207K | 212K |
Initial Claims - Change | -5K | 0K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 213.25K | 214.5K |
Highlights
The level of insured jobless claims is down 15,000 to 1.781 million in the April 13 week after a downward revision to 1.769 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average is down 7,250 to 1.794 million in the April 13 week. Among those eligible for unemployment benefits, the number of persons receiving payments also remains relatively low and stable, and consistent with a tight labor market. The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.2 percent in the April 13 week for over a year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.