Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 210K to 215K | 212K | 211K | 212K |
Initial Claims - Change | 0K | -11K | -10K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 214.5K | 214.25K | 214.5K |
Highlights
Claims have been at 212,000 five out of the past six weeks, the March 30 week being the exception at 222,000. As a result, the four-week moving average was also unchanged at 214,500 in the April 13 week, confirming the recent steady trend in initial claims.
Insured jobless claims were little changed at 1.812 million in lagging data for the April 6 week, up 2,000 from the previous week. The insured rate of unemployment for workers covered by unemployment insurance remained steady at 1.2 percent, where it has been for over a year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.