ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level215K215K to 218K211K221K222K
Initial Claims - Change-11K9K10K
4-Week Moving Average214.25K214.25K214.50K

Highlights

Initial jobless claims are down 11,000 to 211,000 in the week ending April 6 after a negligible upward revision to 222,000 in the March 30 week. The level is slightly below the consensus of 215,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Unadjusted claims are up 17,037 to 214,386 in the April 6 week, less than anticipated by seasonal adjustment factors. Seasonal adjustment can be challenging this time of year due to the changing dates for the Easter observance. Nonetheless, the four-week moving average is essentially unchanged and is down only 250 to 214,250 in the April 6 week. The underlying trend for initial jobless claims has been quite steady in recent weeks and consistent with a tight labor market.

Insured jobless claims are up 28,000 to 1.817 million in the March 30 week, a move that is well within normal week-to-week fluctuations. The four-week moving average is up 3,500 to 1.803 million from the prior week. The levels of those receiving unemployment benefits remain in line with a labor market able to absorb laid off workers within the period of eligibility for benefits.

The insured rate of unemployment for workers covered by unemployment insurance is 1.2 percent in the March 30 week and has been at this level for over a year.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Jobless claims for the March 28 week are expected to come in at 215,000 versus 221,000 in the prior week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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