Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims - Level | 215K | 215K to 218K | 211K | 221K | 222K |
Initial Claims - Change | -11K | 9K | 10K | ||
4-Week Moving Average | 214.25K | 214.25K | 214.50K |
Highlights
Insured jobless claims are up 28,000 to 1.817 million in the March 30 week, a move that is well within normal week-to-week fluctuations. The four-week moving average is up 3,500 to 1.803 million from the prior week. The levels of those receiving unemployment benefits remain in line with a labor market able to absorb laid off workers within the period of eligibility for benefits.
The insured rate of unemployment for workers covered by unemployment insurance is 1.2 percent in the March 30 week and has been at this level for over a year.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.