Highlights
German retail sales volumes are expected to rise 0.3 percent in February versus January's weaker-than-expected 0.4 percent decline that indicated retailers were continuing to struggle.
In the UK, no revisions are expected to the October-December quarter GDP, leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly contraction and a 0.2 percent yearly fall.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator is forecast at 102.0 for March, up from 101.6 in February.
Germany's unemployment rate in March is expected to hold steady at February's 5.9 percent.
In the Eurozone, the trend rate of decline in M3 has become gradually shallower, with the consensus for February at a 0.2 percent rise for the annual three-month moving average. This would follow a 0.2 percent decline in January.
In Italy, the confidence index for manufacturing is expected to edge up to 87.6 from 87.3 in February and the consumer sector index to rise to 97.3 from 97.0.
Among US data, consensus for the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is 3.2 percent growth, which would be unchanged from the second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures are likewise expected to hold at the second estimate's 3.0 percent.
New jobless claims for the March 23 week are expected to rise slightly to 213,000 after 210,000 in the prior week.
The Chicago PMI is expected to rise in March to 46.0 versus February's 44.0 that followed January's 46.0. This index emerged only briefly from long contraction in November at 55.8.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in final March is expected to hold unchanged from the preliminary 76.5 that was down slightly from February's 76.9. Year-ahead inflation expectations for final March are also seen unchanged at the steady 3.0 percent level.
Pending home sales in February, which in January fell 4.9 percent after jumping 5.7 percent in December, are expected to rise 1.3 percent.
The Canadian economy appears to have made a good start to 2024. The monthly GDP data for January is expected to post a sharp 0.4 percent rebound, backed by a resilient housing market, after being flat in December.
South Korean industrial production is expected to increase 0.3 percent on the month in February versus a 1.3 percent fall in January that followed a 0.5 percent fall in December.
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to decelerate slightly in March after accelerating sharply in February, when the waning base-year effect of utility subsidies led to a much smaller fall in energy prices. The core CPI (excluding fresh food), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is expected to post a 2.4 percent gain on year after rising to 2.5 percent in February from 1.8 percent in January. The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is forecast at 2.5 percent after surging to 2.6 percent from January's 1.6 percent. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) annual rate is expected to ease further to a 15-month low of 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 19th straight rise on year in February, reflecting labor shortages at factories, retailers, hotels and restaurants. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4 percent, unchanged from January, when it fell from 2.5 percent in December to the level unseen for nearly four years. People are quitting to look for better openings or start looking for work in tight labor conditions and amid reports that many firms are raising wages at a faster pace.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rise 1.0 percent on the month in February, recovering only a portion of an upwardly revised 6.7 percent plunge caused by suspended vehicle output over a safety test scandal. From a year earlier, factory output is expected to post a fourth straight drop, down 2.8 percent, after a 1.5 percent dip in the prior month. Output has also received downward pressures from the powerful New Year's Day earthquake in the northwestern region of Hokuriku, which has reduced electronic parts supply.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 2.8 percent on the year in February after a downwardly revised 2.1 percent gain in January, led by robust department store sales and steady fuel prices that appear to have mitigated the impact of suspended vehicle production and slower shipments. On the month, retail sales are expected to post a second straight increase, up 1.1 percent after a slight 0.2 percent rise (revised down from a 0.8 percent gain). The METI regards retail sales as"taking one step forward and one step back."
In the UK, no revisions are expected to the October-December quarter GDP, leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly contraction and a 0.2 percent yearly fall.
The KOF Swiss leading indicator is forecast at 102.0 for March, up from 101.6 in February.
Germany's unemployment rate in March is expected to hold steady at February's 5.9 percent.
In the Eurozone, the trend rate of decline in M3 has become gradually shallower, with the consensus for February at a 0.2 percent rise for the annual three-month moving average. This would follow a 0.2 percent decline in January.
In Italy, the confidence index for manufacturing is expected to edge up to 87.6 from 87.3 in February and the consumer sector index to rise to 97.3 from 97.0.
Among US data, consensus for the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is 3.2 percent growth, which would be unchanged from the second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures are likewise expected to hold at the second estimate's 3.0 percent.
New jobless claims for the March 23 week are expected to rise slightly to 213,000 after 210,000 in the prior week.
The Chicago PMI is expected to rise in March to 46.0 versus February's 44.0 that followed January's 46.0. This index emerged only briefly from long contraction in November at 55.8.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in final March is expected to hold unchanged from the preliminary 76.5 that was down slightly from February's 76.9. Year-ahead inflation expectations for final March are also seen unchanged at the steady 3.0 percent level.
Pending home sales in February, which in January fell 4.9 percent after jumping 5.7 percent in December, are expected to rise 1.3 percent.
The Canadian economy appears to have made a good start to 2024. The monthly GDP data for January is expected to post a sharp 0.4 percent rebound, backed by a resilient housing market, after being flat in December.
South Korean industrial production is expected to increase 0.3 percent on the month in February versus a 1.3 percent fall in January that followed a 0.5 percent fall in December.
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, the leading indicator of the national average, is forecast to decelerate slightly in March after accelerating sharply in February, when the waning base-year effect of utility subsidies led to a much smaller fall in energy prices. The core CPI (excluding fresh food), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, is expected to post a 2.4 percent gain on year after rising to 2.5 percent in February from 1.8 percent in January. The year-over-year rise in the total CPI is forecast at 2.5 percent after surging to 2.6 percent from January's 1.6 percent. The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) annual rate is expected to ease further to a 15-month low of 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent.
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 19th straight rise on year in February, reflecting labor shortages at factories, retailers, hotels and restaurants. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4 percent, unchanged from January, when it fell from 2.5 percent in December to the level unseen for nearly four years. People are quitting to look for better openings or start looking for work in tight labor conditions and amid reports that many firms are raising wages at a faster pace.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to rise 1.0 percent on the month in February, recovering only a portion of an upwardly revised 6.7 percent plunge caused by suspended vehicle output over a safety test scandal. From a year earlier, factory output is expected to post a fourth straight drop, down 2.8 percent, after a 1.5 percent dip in the prior month. Output has also received downward pressures from the powerful New Year's Day earthquake in the northwestern region of Hokuriku, which has reduced electronic parts supply.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen 2.8 percent on the year in February after a downwardly revised 2.1 percent gain in January, led by robust department store sales and steady fuel prices that appear to have mitigated the impact of suspended vehicle production and slower shipments. On the month, retail sales are expected to post a second straight increase, up 1.1 percent after a slight 0.2 percent rise (revised down from a 0.8 percent gain). The METI regards retail sales as"taking one step forward and one step back."
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
